Plasencia vs Santa Amalia Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Plasencia vs Santa Amalia
Model pick: Plasencia (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.41 – 0.77
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Plasencia | Santa Amalia |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 0.2 / 1.4 |
*Plasencia shown at home, Santa Amalia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Plasencia — last 5
LDWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 45% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Santa Amalia — last 5
LLDLL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Plasencia (home) | Santa Amalia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 45% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 34% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 44% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.41 vs 0.77):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Plasencia or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Santa Amalia or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Plasencia clean sheet | 46% |
| Santa Amalia clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Plasencia is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Plasencia are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Plasencia vs Santa Amalia — FAQ
Who will win Plasencia vs Santa Amalia?
Our statistical model makes Plasencia the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Plasencia 49%, draw 28%, Santa Amalia 22%.
Will both teams score in Plasencia vs Santa Amalia?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Plasencia vs Santa Amalia?
Expected goals are 1.41 for Plasencia and 0.77 for Santa Amalia — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Plasencia vs Santa Amalia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Plasencia or draw is 80%.