Plock II vs Mlawa Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Plock II vs Mlawa
Model pick: Plock II (62%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.77 – 0.59
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Plock II | Mlawa |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
*Plock II shown at home, Mlawa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Plock II — last 5
WWDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Mlawa — last 5
WLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Plock II (home) | Mlawa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 75% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 63%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.77 vs 0.59):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Plock II or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — Mlawa or draw (X2) | 34% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Plock II clean sheet | 55% |
| Mlawa clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Plock II is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Plock II are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Plock II vs Mlawa — FAQ
Who will win Plock II vs Mlawa?
Our statistical model makes Plock II the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Plock II 62%, draw 24%, Mlawa 14%.
Will both teams score in Plock II vs Mlawa?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Plock II vs Mlawa?
Expected goals are 1.77 for Plock II and 0.59 for Mlawa — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Plock II vs Mlawa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Plock II or draw is 88%.