Pocheon vs Mokpo City Prediction & Preview
K League 3 (South Korea) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 09:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 3 (SOUTH KOREA)
Pocheon vs Mokpo City
Model pick: Pocheon (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.74 – 1.14
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pocheon | Mokpo City |
|---|
| League position | #2 (36 pts) | #13 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.1 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 2.0 |
*Pocheon shown at home, Mokpo City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pocheon — last 5
WWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Mokpo City — last 5
WWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pocheon (home) | Mokpo City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-1 in 9 (2.1 / 0.9 goals per game) | 1-4-4 in 9 (0.8 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 47% |
K League 3 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.41
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these K League 3 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.74 vs 1.14):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Pocheon or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Mokpo City or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Pocheon clean sheet | 32% |
| Mokpo City clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pocheon is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Pocheon are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pocheon vs Mokpo City — FAQ
Who will win Pocheon vs Mokpo City?
Our statistical model makes Pocheon the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Pocheon 48%, draw 25%, Mokpo City 26%.
Will both teams score in Pocheon vs Mokpo City?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pocheon vs Mokpo City?
Expected goals are 1.74 for Pocheon and 1.14 for Mokpo City — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pocheon vs Mokpo City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Pocheon or draw is 75%.