Pogoń Szczecin vs Motor Lublin Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Pogoń Szczecin vs Motor Lublin
Model pick: Pogoń Szczecin (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.11 – 1.12
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pogoń Szczecin | Motor Lublin |
|---|
| League position | #17 (0 pts) | #12 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.8 | 2.2 / 1.2 |
*Pogoń Szczecin shown at home, Motor Lublin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pogoń Szczecin — last 5
LWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Motor Lublin — last 5
WWWDL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pogoń Szczecin (home) | Motor Lublin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 57% |
| Top scorer | Paul Mukairu (6) | Karol Czubak (15) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.11 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Pogoń Szczecin or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Motor Lublin or draw (X2) | 40% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Pogoń Szczecin clean sheet | 33% |
| Motor Lublin clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pogoń Szczecin is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Pogoń Szczecin are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Pogoń Szczecin vs Motor Lublin — FAQ
Who will win Pogoń Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model makes Pogoń Szczecin the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Pogoń Szczecin 56%, draw 22%, Motor Lublin 22%.
Will both teams score in Pogoń Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pogoń Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?
Expected goals are 2.11 for Pogoń Szczecin and 1.12 for Motor Lublin — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pogoń Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Pogoń Szczecin or draw is 81%.