Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Kraków Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Kraków
Model pick: Pogoń Szczecin (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.09 – 1.23
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pogoń Szczecin | Wisła Kraków |
|---|
| League position | #4 (6 pts) | #6 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
*Pogoń Szczecin shown at home, Wisła Kraków shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pogoń Szczecin — last 5
LLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Wisła Kraków — last 5
DWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pogoń Szczecin (home) | Wisła Kraków (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (2.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% |
| Top scorer | Paul Mukairu (6) | Lukasz Sekulski (8) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.09 vs 1.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Pogoń Szczecin or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Wisła Kraków or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Pogoń Szczecin clean sheet | 29% |
| Wisła Kraków clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pogoń Szczecin is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Pogoń Szczecin are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Kraków — FAQ
Who will win Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Kraków?
Our statistical model makes Pogoń Szczecin the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Pogoń Szczecin 54%, draw 23%, Wisła Kraków 24%.
Will both teams score in Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Kraków?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Kraków?
Expected goals are 2.09 for Pogoń Szczecin and 1.23 for Wisła Kraków — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Kraków?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Pogoń Szczecin or draw is 78%.