Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Płock Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Płock
Model pick: Pogoń Szczecin (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.67 – 0.88
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pogoń Szczecin | Wisła Płock |
|---|
| League position | #7 (8 pts) | #16 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.0 / 2.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 2.0 |
*Pogoń Szczecin shown at home, Wisła Płock shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pogoń Szczecin — last 5
LWWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Wisła Płock — last 5
WDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 13% of the time; 59% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pogoń Szczecin (home) | Wisła Płock (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-1 in 3 (1.7 / 1.3 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.0 / 2.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 59% |
| Top scorer | Paul Mukairu (6) | Lukasz Sekulski (8) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.67 vs 0.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Pogoń Szczecin or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Wisła Płock or draw (X2) | 44% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Pogoń Szczecin clean sheet | 41% |
| Wisła Płock clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pogoń Szczecin is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Pogoń Szczecin are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Płock — FAQ
Who will win Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Płock?
Our statistical model makes Pogoń Szczecin the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Pogoń Szczecin 52%, draw 26%, Wisła Płock 22%.
Will both teams score in Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Płock?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Płock?
Expected goals are 1.67 for Pogoń Szczecin and 0.88 for Wisła Płock — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Płock?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Pogoń Szczecin or draw is 80%.