Pohlheim vs Fernwald Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Pohlheim vs Fernwald
Model pick: Fernwald (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.24 – 1.41
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pohlheim | Fernwald |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*Pohlheim shown at home, Fernwald shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pohlheim — last 5
WDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Fernwald — last 5
DDLWD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pohlheim (home) | Fernwald (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.59
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 67%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.24 vs 1.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Pohlheim or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Fernwald or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Pohlheim clean sheet | 24% |
| Fernwald clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fernwald is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Fernwald edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pohlheim vs Fernwald — FAQ
Who will win Pohlheim vs Fernwald?
Our statistical model makes Fernwald the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Pohlheim 33%, draw 27%, Fernwald 40%.
Will both teams score in Pohlheim vs Fernwald?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pohlheim vs Fernwald?
Expected goals are 1.24 for Pohlheim and 1.41 for Fernwald — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pohlheim vs Fernwald?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Pohlheim or draw is 59%.