Pontardawe vs Caerau Ely Prediction & Preview
Feeder Leagues (Wales) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FEEDER LEAGUES (WALES)
Pontardawe vs Caerau Ely
Model pick: Caerau Ely (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.61 – 2.54
Total goals: 4.2
Over 2.5: 68%
Both teams score: 64%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pontardawe | Caerau Ely |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.8 | 2.0 / 3.0 |
*Pontardawe shown at home, Caerau Ely shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pontardawe — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Caerau Ely — last 5
LDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 80% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pontardawe (home) | Caerau Ely (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 80% |
Feeder Leagues (Wales) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.53
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 16%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 74%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Feeder Leagues (Wales) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.61 vs 2.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (8%) |
| Double chance — Pontardawe or draw (1X) | 42% |
| Double chance — Caerau Ely or draw (X2) | 76% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 92% / 8% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Pontardawe clean sheet | 8% |
| Caerau Ely clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Caerau Ely is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Despite playing away, Caerau Ely edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.2, this shapes as an open game (68% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pontardawe vs Caerau Ely — FAQ
Who will win Pontardawe vs Caerau Ely?
Our statistical model makes Caerau Ely the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Pontardawe 25%, draw 21%, Caerau Ely 54%.
Will both teams score in Pontardawe vs Caerau Ely?
The model gives a 64% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pontardawe vs Caerau Ely?
Expected goals are 1.61 for Pontardawe and 2.54 for Caerau Ely — about 4.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pontardawe vs Caerau Ely?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (8%). Double chance for Pontardawe or draw is 42%.