Poole vs Basingstoke Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Poole vs Basingstoke
Model pick: Poole (88%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 4.7 – 1.02
Total goals: 5.7
Over 2.5: 80%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Poole | Basingstoke |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.25 / 0.75 | 2.25 / 3.5 |
*Poole shown at home, Basingstoke shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Poole — last 5
DWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Basingstoke — last 5
WLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Poole (home) | Basingstoke (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (4.7 vs 1.02):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 4-1 (7%) |
| Double chance — Poole or draw (1X) | 97% |
| Double chance — Basingstoke or draw (X2) | 9% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 95% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 98% / 2% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Poole clean sheet | 36% |
| Basingstoke clean sheet | 1% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Poole is the model's most likely outcome at
88%. Poole are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 5.7, this shapes as an open game (80% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Poole vs Basingstoke — FAQ
Who will win Poole vs Basingstoke?
Our statistical model makes Poole the most likely result at 88%. Full probabilities: Poole 88%, draw 8%, Basingstoke 5%.
Will both teams score in Poole vs Basingstoke?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Poole vs Basingstoke?
Expected goals are 4.7 for Poole and 1.02 for Basingstoke — about 5.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Poole vs Basingstoke?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 4-1 (7%). Double chance for Poole or draw is 97%.