Porthmadog vs Bala Prediction & Preview
Feeder Leagues (Wales) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FEEDER LEAGUES (WALES)
Porthmadog vs Bala
Model pick: Bala (70%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.87 – 2.7
Total goals: 3.6
Over 2.5: 62%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Porthmadog | Bala |
|---|
| League position | #6 (10 pts) | #3 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.5 | 2.5 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.4 | 2.5 / 0.75 |
*Porthmadog shown at home, Bala shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Porthmadog — last 5
WWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Bala — last 5
WWWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Porthmadog (home) | Bala (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.5 goals per game) | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.5 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
Feeder Leagues (Wales) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.53
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 16%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 74%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Feeder Leagues (Wales) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.87 vs 2.7):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — Porthmadog or draw (1X) | 24% |
| Double chance — Bala or draw (X2) | 90% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 85% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 48% / 52% |
| Porthmadog clean sheet | 7% |
| Bala clean sheet | 42% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bala is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Despite playing away, Bala edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.6, this shapes as an open game (62% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Porthmadog vs Bala — FAQ
Who will win Porthmadog vs Bala?
Our statistical model makes Bala the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Porthmadog 12%, draw 17%, Bala 70%.
Will both teams score in Porthmadog vs Bala?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Porthmadog vs Bala?
Expected goals are 0.87 for Porthmadog and 2.7 for Bala — about 3.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Porthmadog vs Bala?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (10%). Double chance for Porthmadog or draw is 24%.