Porthmadog vs Caersws FC Prediction & Preview
Feeder Leagues (Wales) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FEEDER LEAGUES (WALES)
Porthmadog vs Caersws FC
Model pick: Porthmadog (72%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 5.25 – 2.64
Total goals: 7.9
Over 2.5: 87%
Both teams score: 76%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Porthmadog | Caersws FC |
|---|
| League position | #2 (10 pts) | #10 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.0 | 2.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.67 / 2.0 |
*Porthmadog shown at home, Caersws FC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Porthmadog — last 5
WWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 100% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Caersws FC — last 5
DWL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Porthmadog (home) | Caersws FC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (2.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
Feeder Leagues (Wales) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.43
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 15%
Away wins: 40%
Over 2.5: 72%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Feeder Leagues (Wales) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (5.25 vs 2.64):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 5-2 (5%) |
| Double chance — Porthmadog or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Caersws FC or draw (X2) | 24% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 90% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 95% / 5% |
| Porthmadog clean sheet | 7% |
| Caersws FC clean sheet | 1% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Porthmadog is the model's most likely outcome at
72%. Porthmadog are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 7.9, this shapes as an open game (87% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Porthmadog vs Caersws FC — FAQ
Who will win Porthmadog vs Caersws FC?
Our statistical model makes Porthmadog the most likely result at 72%. Full probabilities: Porthmadog 72%, draw 12%, Caersws FC 16%.
Will both teams score in Porthmadog vs Caersws FC?
The model gives a 76% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Porthmadog vs Caersws FC?
Expected goals are 5.25 for Porthmadog and 2.64 for Caersws FC — about 7.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Porthmadog vs Caersws FC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 5-2 (5%). Double chance for Porthmadog or draw is 86%.