Portimonense vs Vizela Prediction & Preview
Division2 (Portugal) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION2 (PORTUGAL)
Portimonense vs Vizela
Model pick: Vizela (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.04 – 1.4
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Portimonense | Vizela |
|---|
| League position | #5 (3 pts) | #6 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Portimonense shown at home, Vizela shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Portimonense — last 5
LWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Vizela — last 5
WLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Portimonense (home) | Vizela (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% |
Division2 (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Division2 (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.04 vs 1.4):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Portimonense or draw (1X) | 55% |
| Double chance — Vizela or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Portimonense clean sheet | 25% |
| Vizela clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vizela is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Despite playing away, Vizela edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Portimonense vs Vizela — FAQ
Who will win Portimonense vs Vizela?
Our statistical model makes Vizela the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Portimonense 28%, draw 29%, Vizela 43%.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Vizela?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Portimonense vs Vizela?
Expected goals are 1.04 for Portimonense and 1.4 for Vizela — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Portimonense vs Vizela?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Portimonense or draw is 55%.