Portland Hearts of Pine vs Fort Wayne Prediction & Preview
USL League One (USA) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL LEAGUE ONE (USA)
Portland Hearts of Pine vs Fort Wayne
Model pick: Portland Hearts of Pine (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
50%
Portland Hearts of Pine
Expected goals: 1.85 – 1.19
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Portland Hearts of Pine | Fort Wayne |
|---|
| League position | #13 (23 pts) | #10 (27 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 30% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
*Portland Hearts of Pine shown at home, Fort Wayne shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Portland Hearts of Pine — last 5
DLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 80% of home games go over 2.5.
Fort Wayne — last 5
WLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Portland Hearts of Pine (home) | Fort Wayne (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-4 in 10 (1.5 / 1.3 goals per game) | 3-3-5 in 11 (1.1 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 100% |
USL League One (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 50%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 61%
Use these USL League One (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.85 vs 1.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Portland Hearts of Pine or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Fort Wayne or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Portland Hearts of Pine clean sheet | 30% |
| Fort Wayne clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Portland Hearts of Pine is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Portland Hearts of Pine are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Portland Hearts of Pine vs Fort Wayne — FAQ
Who will win Portland Hearts of Pine vs Fort Wayne?
Our statistical model makes Portland Hearts of Pine the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Portland Hearts of Pine 50%, draw 24%, Fort Wayne 26%.
Will both teams score in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Fort Wayne?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Fort Wayne?
Expected goals are 1.85 for Portland Hearts of Pine and 1.19 for Fort Wayne — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Fort Wayne?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Portland Hearts of Pine or draw is 76%.