Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Sep 10, 2026 · kickoff 02:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City
Model pick: Portland Timbers (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.93 – 1.36
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Portland Timbers | St. Louis City |
|---|
| League position | #11 (17 pts) | #10 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 1.8 | 0.6 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.4 | 2.0 / 1.4 |
*Portland Timbers shown at home, St. Louis City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Portland Timbers — last 5
WLWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 65% of home games go over 2.5.
St. Louis City — last 5
DWDWD
On the road: clean sheet 11% of the time; 69% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Portland Timbers (home) | St. Louis City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-1-2 in 6 (2.3 / 1.8 goals per game) | 1-3-4 in 8 (0.6 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 11% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 69% |
| Top scorer | Kevin Kelsy (8) | Nicolas Mercau (14) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.93 vs 1.36):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Portland Timbers or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — St. Louis City or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Portland Timbers clean sheet | 26% |
| St. Louis City clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Portland Timbers is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Portland Timbers are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City — FAQ
Who will win Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?
Our statistical model makes Portland Timbers the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Portland Timbers 47%, draw 25%, St. Louis City 28%.
Will both teams score in Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?
Expected goals are 1.93 for Portland Timbers and 1.36 for St. Louis City — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Portland Timbers or draw is 73%.