Porto II vs Farense Prediction & Preview
Division2 (Portugal) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION2 (PORTUGAL)
Porto II vs Farense
Model pick: Farense (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.07
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Porto II | Farense |
|---|
| League position | #17 (0 pts) | #4 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
*Porto II shown at home, Farense shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Porto II — last 5
WWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Farense — last 5
DDDLW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Porto II (home) | Farense (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Leonardo Vonic (4) | – |
Division2 (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Division2 (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Porto II or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Farense or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Porto II clean sheet | 34% |
| Farense clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Farense is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Farense edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Porto II vs Farense — FAQ
Who will win Porto II vs Farense?
Our statistical model makes Farense the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Porto II 31%, draw 29%, Farense 40%.
Will both teams score in Porto II vs Farense?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Porto II vs Farense?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Porto II and 1.07 for Farense — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Porto II vs Farense?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Porto II or draw is 66%.