Portsmouth vs Derby County Prediction & Preview
Championship (England) · Sep 01, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHAMPIONSHIP (ENGLAND)
Portsmouth vs Derby County
Model pick: Portsmouth (36%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.29
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Portsmouth | Derby County |
|---|
| League position | #10 (3 pts) | #16 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 3.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 1.6 |
*Portsmouth shown at home, Derby County shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Portsmouth — last 5
DDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Derby County — last 5
LDLLD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Portsmouth (home) | Derby County (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 3.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 50% |
Championship (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Championship (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.29 vs 1.29):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Portsmouth or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Derby County or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Portsmouth clean sheet | 28% |
| Derby County clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Portsmouth is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Portsmouth are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Portsmouth vs Derby County — FAQ
Who will win Portsmouth vs Derby County?
Our statistical model makes Portsmouth the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Portsmouth 36%, draw 28%, Derby County 36%.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Derby County?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Portsmouth vs Derby County?
Expected goals are 1.29 for Portsmouth and 1.29 for Derby County — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Portsmouth vs Derby County?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Portsmouth or draw is 63%.