Pradejón vs Casalarreina Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Pradejón vs Casalarreina
Model pick: Pradejón (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.77 – 1.22
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pradejón | Casalarreina |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
*Pradejón shown at home, Casalarreina shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pradejón — last 5
LWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Casalarreina — last 5
WWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pradejón (home) | Casalarreina (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 48% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.77 vs 1.22):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Pradejón or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Casalarreina or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Pradejón clean sheet | 30% |
| Casalarreina clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pradejón is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Pradejón are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pradejón vs Casalarreina — FAQ
Who will win Pradejón vs Casalarreina?
Our statistical model makes Pradejón the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Pradejón 48%, draw 25%, Casalarreina 28%.
Will both teams score in Pradejón vs Casalarreina?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pradejón vs Casalarreina?
Expected goals are 1.77 for Pradejón and 1.22 for Casalarreina — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pradejón vs Casalarreina?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Pradejón or draw is 74%.