Pro Vercelli vs Folgore Caratese Prediction & Preview
Serie C - Group A (Italy) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C - GROUP A (ITALY)
Pro Vercelli vs Folgore Caratese
Model pick: Pro Vercelli (53%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.16 – 1.31
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pro Vercelli | Folgore Caratese |
|---|
| League position | #14 (46 pts) | #14 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.1 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 42% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*Pro Vercelli shown at home, Folgore Caratese shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pro Vercelli — last 5
LLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 34% of home games go over 2.5.
Folgore Caratese — last 5
DDLLD
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pro Vercelli (home) | Folgore Caratese (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 8-4-7 in 19 (1.0 / 1.1 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 50% |
Serie C - Group A (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.33
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie C - Group A (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.16 vs 1.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Pro Vercelli or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Folgore Caratese or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 46% / 54% |
| Pro Vercelli clean sheet | 27% |
| Folgore Caratese clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pro Vercelli is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Pro Vercelli are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pro Vercelli vs Folgore Caratese — FAQ
Who will win Pro Vercelli vs Folgore Caratese?
Our statistical model makes Pro Vercelli the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Pro Vercelli 53%, draw 22%, Folgore Caratese 24%.
Will both teams score in Pro Vercelli vs Folgore Caratese?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pro Vercelli vs Folgore Caratese?
Expected goals are 2.16 for Pro Vercelli and 1.31 for Folgore Caratese — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pro Vercelli vs Folgore Caratese?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Pro Vercelli or draw is 77%.