Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction & Preview
Primera (Uruguay) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA (URUGUAY)
Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado
Model pick: Deportivo Maldonado (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.16
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Progreso | Deportivo Maldonado |
|---|
| League position | #16 (16 pts) | #2 (41 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
*Progreso shown at home, Deportivo Maldonado shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Progreso — last 5
DLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Maldonado — last 5
WDLDD
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Progreso (home) | Deportivo Maldonado (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 42% |
Primera (Uruguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.48
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera (Uruguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.35 vs 1.16):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Progreso or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Maldonado or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Progreso clean sheet | 31% |
| Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Maldonado is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Deportivo Maldonado edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado — FAQ
Who will win Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Maldonado the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Progreso 30%, draw 28%, Deportivo Maldonado 42%.
Will both teams score in Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Expected goals are 1.35 for Progreso and 1.16 for Deportivo Maldonado — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Progreso or draw is 68%.