PSV II vs Ajax II Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 31, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
PSV II vs Ajax II
Model pick: PSV II (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.02 – 1.5
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| PSV II | Ajax II |
|---|
| League position | #17 (0 pts) | #18 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.0 | 1.4 / 3.2 |
*PSV II shown at home, Ajax II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
PSV II — last 5
LWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 66% of home games go over 2.5.
Ajax II — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 73% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | PSV II (home) | Ajax II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 73% |
| Top scorer | Sami Bouhoudane (6) | Kayden Wolff (5) |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.02 vs 1.5):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — PSV II or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Ajax II or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| PSV II clean sheet | 22% |
| Ajax II clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
PSV II is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. PSV II are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ PSV II vs Ajax II — FAQ
Who will win PSV II vs Ajax II?
Our statistical model makes PSV II the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: PSV II 47%, draw 23%, Ajax II 30%.
Will both teams score in PSV II vs Ajax II?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in PSV II vs Ajax II?
Expected goals are 2.02 for PSV II and 1.5 for Ajax II — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in PSV II vs Ajax II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for PSV II or draw is 71%.