Puebla vs Guadalajara Prediction & Preview
Liga MX (Mexico) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 01:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA MX (MEXICO)
Puebla vs Guadalajara
Model pick: Guadalajara (53%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.94 – 1.56
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Puebla | Guadalajara |
|---|
| League position | #9 (3 pts) | #18 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*Puebla shown at home, Guadalajara shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Puebla — last 5
WLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Guadalajara — last 5
WDLDW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Puebla (home) | Guadalajara (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 45% |
| Top scorer | Emiliano Gomez (8) | – |
Liga MX (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Liga MX (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.94 vs 1.56):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Puebla or draw (1X) | 48% |
| Double chance — Guadalajara or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Puebla clean sheet | 21% |
| Guadalajara clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guadalajara is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Despite playing away, Guadalajara edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Puebla vs Guadalajara — FAQ
Who will win Puebla vs Guadalajara?
Our statistical model makes Guadalajara the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Puebla 22%, draw 25%, Guadalajara 53%.
Will both teams score in Puebla vs Guadalajara?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Puebla vs Guadalajara?
Expected goals are 0.94 for Puebla and 1.56 for Guadalajara — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Puebla vs Guadalajara?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Puebla or draw is 48%.