Pumas UNAM vs Querétaro Prediction & Preview
Liga MX (Mexico) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA MX (MEXICO)
Pumas UNAM vs Querétaro
Model pick: Pumas UNAM (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.67 – 0.91
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pumas UNAM | Querétaro |
|---|
| League position | #4 (6 pts) | #7 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 1.8 |
*Pumas UNAM shown at home, Querétaro shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pumas UNAM — last 5
LWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Querétaro — last 5
LWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pumas UNAM (home) | Querétaro (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 3.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 49% |
| Top scorer | – | Ali Avila (11) |
Liga MX (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Liga MX (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.67 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Pumas UNAM or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Querétaro or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Pumas UNAM clean sheet | 40% |
| Querétaro clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pumas UNAM is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Pumas UNAM are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pumas UNAM vs Querétaro — FAQ
Who will win Pumas UNAM vs Querétaro?
Our statistical model makes Pumas UNAM the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Pumas UNAM 51%, draw 26%, Querétaro 23%.
Will both teams score in Pumas UNAM vs Querétaro?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pumas UNAM vs Querétaro?
Expected goals are 1.67 for Pumas UNAM and 0.91 for Querétaro — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pumas UNAM vs Querétaro?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Pumas UNAM or draw is 80%.