Puntarenas vs Cartaginés Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Costa Rica) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 22:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COSTA RICA)
Puntarenas vs Cartaginés
Model pick: Cartaginés (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.18
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Puntarenas | Cartaginés |
|---|
| League position | #6 (7 pts) | #2 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.7 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 2.6 / 0.8 |
*Puntarenas shown at home, Cartaginés shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Puntarenas — last 5
DLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Cartaginés — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Puntarenas (home) | Cartaginés (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-1 in 3 (0.7 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (2.0 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 47% |
Primera Division (Costa Rica) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Primera Division (Costa Rica) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 1.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Puntarenas or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Cartaginés or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Puntarenas clean sheet | 31% |
| Cartaginés clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cartaginés is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Cartaginés edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Puntarenas vs Cartaginés — FAQ
Who will win Puntarenas vs Cartaginés?
Our statistical model makes Cartaginés the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Puntarenas 34%, draw 29%, Cartaginés 37%.
Will both teams score in Puntarenas vs Cartaginés?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Puntarenas vs Cartaginés?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Puntarenas and 1.18 for Cartaginés — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Puntarenas vs Cartaginés?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Puntarenas or draw is 62%.