Qəbələ vs Imisli FK Prediction & Preview
Premyer Liqasi (Azerbaijan) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMYER LIQASI (AZERBAIJAN)
Qəbələ vs Imisli FK
Model pick: Qəbələ (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.12 – 0.74
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Qəbələ | Imisli FK |
|---|
| League position | #10 (1 pts) | #4 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
*Qəbələ shown at home, Imisli FK shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Qəbələ — last 5
WWLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Imisli FK — last 5
LDDLW
On the road: clean sheet 55% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Qəbələ (home) | Imisli FK (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-1-1 in 3 (0.7 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 55% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 15% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 35% |
Premyer Liqasi (Azerbaijan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Premyer Liqasi (Azerbaijan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.12 vs 0.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Qəbələ or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Imisli FK or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Qəbələ clean sheet | 48% |
| Imisli FK clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Qəbələ is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Qəbələ are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Qəbələ vs Imisli FK — FAQ
Who will win Qəbələ vs Imisli FK?
Our statistical model makes Qəbələ the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Qəbələ 43%, draw 32%, Imisli FK 26%.
Will both teams score in Qəbələ vs Imisli FK?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Qəbələ vs Imisli FK?
Expected goals are 1.12 for Qəbələ and 0.74 for Imisli FK — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Qəbələ vs Imisli FK?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Qəbələ or draw is 76%.