Qəbələ vs Keşlə Prediction & Preview
Premyer Liqasi (Azerbaijan) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMYER LIQASI (AZERBAIJAN)
Qəbələ vs Keşlə
Model pick: Qəbələ (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.09 – 1.0
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Qəbələ | Keşlə |
|---|
| League position | #11 (0 pts) | #7 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 2.2 |
*Qəbələ shown at home, Keşlə shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Qəbələ — last 5
WWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Keşlə — last 5
LWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Qəbələ (home) | Keşlə (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 47% |
Premyer Liqasi (Azerbaijan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.5
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Premyer Liqasi (Azerbaijan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.09 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Qəbələ or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Keşlə or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Qəbələ clean sheet | 37% |
| Keşlə clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Qəbələ is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Qəbələ are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Qəbələ vs Keşlə — FAQ
Who will win Qəbələ vs Keşlə?
Our statistical model makes Qəbələ the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Qəbələ 37%, draw 30%, Keşlə 33%.
Will both teams score in Qəbələ vs Keşlə?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Qəbələ vs Keşlə?
Expected goals are 1.09 for Qəbələ and 1.0 for Keşlə — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Qəbələ vs Keşlə?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Qəbələ or draw is 67%.