Qəbələ vs Safa Baku Prediction & Preview
Premyer Liqasi (Azerbaijan) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMYER LIQASI (AZERBAIJAN)
Qəbələ vs Safa Baku
Model pick: Qəbələ (73%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.68 – 0.12
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 37%
Both teams score: 27%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Qəbələ | Safa Baku |
|---|
| League position | #8 (0 pts) | #12 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 0.0 / 2.0 |
*Qəbələ shown at home, Safa Baku shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Qəbələ — last 5
DWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Safa Baku — last 5
L
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Qəbələ (home) | Safa Baku (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 0% |
Premyer Liqasi (Azerbaijan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.5
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Premyer Liqasi (Azerbaijan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.68 vs 0.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (28%) |
| Double chance — Qəbələ or draw (1X) | 98% |
| Double chance — Safa Baku or draw (X2) | 22% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 54% / 46% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 11% / 89% |
| Qəbələ clean sheet | 89% |
| Safa Baku clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Qəbələ is the model's most likely outcome at
73%. Qəbələ are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (63% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Qəbələ vs Safa Baku — FAQ
Who will win Qəbələ vs Safa Baku?
Our statistical model makes Qəbələ the most likely result at 73%. Full probabilities: Qəbələ 73%, draw 23%, Safa Baku 4%.
Will both teams score in Qəbələ vs Safa Baku?
The model gives a 27% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Qəbələ vs Safa Baku?
Expected goals are 1.68 for Qəbələ and 0.12 for Safa Baku — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Qəbələ vs Safa Baku?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (28%). Double chance for Qəbələ or draw is 98%.