Qingdao West Coast vs Chongqing Tonglianglong Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Qingdao West Coast vs Chongqing Tonglianglong
Model pick: Qingdao West Coast (56%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
16%
Chongqing Tonglianglong
Expected goals: 1.46 – 0.56
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Qingdao West Coast | Chongqing Tonglianglong |
|---|
| League position | #4 (31 pts) | #6 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 36% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Qingdao West Coast shown at home, Chongqing Tonglianglong shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Qingdao West Coast — last 5
LDLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Chongqing Tonglianglong — last 5
DDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 25% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Qingdao West Coast (home) | Chongqing Tonglianglong (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-7-0 in 11 (1.4 / 0.8 goals per game) | 3-3-5 in 11 (0.8 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 25% |
| Top scorer | Nelson Da Luz (8) | – |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.46 vs 0.56):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Qingdao West Coast or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Chongqing Tonglianglong or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Qingdao West Coast clean sheet | 57% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Qingdao West Coast is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Qingdao West Coast are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Qingdao West Coast vs Chongqing Tonglianglong — FAQ
Who will win Qingdao West Coast vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
Our statistical model makes Qingdao West Coast the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Qingdao West Coast 56%, draw 28%, Chongqing Tonglianglong 16%.
Will both teams score in Qingdao West Coast vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Qingdao West Coast vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
Expected goals are 1.46 for Qingdao West Coast and 0.56 for Chongqing Tonglianglong — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Qingdao West Coast vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Qingdao West Coast or draw is 86%.