Qizilqum vs Buxoro Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Qizilqum vs Buxoro
Model pick: Qizilqum (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.3 – 0.97
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Qizilqum | Buxoro |
|---|
| League position | #11 (23 pts) | #4 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 22% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 2.2 / 1.0 |
*Qizilqum shown at home, Buxoro shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Qizilqum — last 5
WLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Buxoro — last 5
WDWWD
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Qizilqum (home) | Buxoro (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-4 in 10 (1.2 / 1.2 goals per game) | 2-3-4 in 9 (1.1 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 48% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.3 vs 0.97):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Qizilqum or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Buxoro or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Qizilqum clean sheet | 38% |
| Buxoro clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Qizilqum is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Qizilqum are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Qizilqum vs Buxoro — FAQ
Who will win Qizilqum vs Buxoro?
Our statistical model makes Qizilqum the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Qizilqum 42%, draw 29%, Buxoro 29%.
Will both teams score in Qizilqum vs Buxoro?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Qizilqum vs Buxoro?
Expected goals are 1.3 for Qizilqum and 0.97 for Buxoro — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Qizilqum vs Buxoro?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Qizilqum or draw is 72%.