Qizilqum vs Mash'al Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Qizilqum vs Mash'al
Model pick: Qizilqum (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.38 – 0.72
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Qizilqum | Mash'al |
|---|
| League position | #14 (17 pts) | #16 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.5 | 0.6 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*Qizilqum shown at home, Mash'al shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Qizilqum — last 5
LDLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Mash'al — last 5
DWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Qizilqum (home) | Mash'al (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-1-4 in 8 (1.1 / 1.5 goals per game) | 0-0-8 in 8 (0.6 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 50% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.38 vs 0.72):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Qizilqum or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Mash'al or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Qizilqum clean sheet | 49% |
| Mash'al clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Qizilqum is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Qizilqum are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Qizilqum vs Mash'al — FAQ
Who will win Qizilqum vs Mash'al?
Our statistical model makes Qizilqum the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Qizilqum 50%, draw 29%, Mash'al 21%.
Will both teams score in Qizilqum vs Mash'al?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Qizilqum vs Mash'al?
Expected goals are 1.38 for Qizilqum and 0.72 for Mash'al — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Qizilqum vs Mash'al?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Qizilqum or draw is 80%.