Qizilqum vs Nasaf Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Qizilqum vs Nasaf
Model pick: Nasaf (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.69 – 1.41
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Qizilqum | Nasaf |
|---|
| League position | #12 (20 pts) | #7 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 0.8 |
*Qizilqum shown at home, Nasaf shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Qizilqum — last 5
LWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Nasaf — last 5
DWWDL
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Qizilqum (home) | Nasaf (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-4 in 9 (1.2 / 1.3 goals per game) | 3-4-1 in 8 (1.6 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% |
| Top scorer | – | Sardorbek Bakhromov (2) |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.69 vs 1.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (17%) |
| Double chance — Qizilqum or draw (1X) | 46% |
| Double chance — Nasaf or draw (X2) | 82% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Qizilqum clean sheet | 24% |
| Nasaf clean sheet | 50% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nasaf is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Despite playing away, Nasaf edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Qizilqum vs Nasaf — FAQ
Who will win Qizilqum vs Nasaf?
Our statistical model makes Nasaf the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Qizilqum 20%, draw 29%, Nasaf 51%.
Will both teams score in Qizilqum vs Nasaf?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Qizilqum vs Nasaf?
Expected goals are 0.69 for Qizilqum and 1.41 for Nasaf — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Qizilqum vs Nasaf?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (17%). Double chance for Qizilqum or draw is 46%.