Queen's Park vs Greenock Morton Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Queen's Park vs Greenock Morton
Model pick: Queen's Park (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.34 – 1.12
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Queen's Park | Greenock Morton |
|---|
| League position | #10 (1 pts) | #9 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 2.0 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 1.6 |
*Queen's Park shown at home, Greenock Morton shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Queen's Park — last 5
WLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Greenock Morton — last 5
LLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Queen's Park (home) | Greenock Morton (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.5 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 46% |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.59
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.34 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Queen's Park or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Greenock Morton or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Queen's Park clean sheet | 33% |
| Greenock Morton clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Queen's Park is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Queen's Park are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Queen's Park vs Greenock Morton — FAQ
Who will win Queen's Park vs Greenock Morton?
Our statistical model makes Queen's Park the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Queen's Park 41%, draw 29%, Greenock Morton 31%.
Will both teams score in Queen's Park vs Greenock Morton?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Queen's Park vs Greenock Morton?
Expected goals are 1.34 for Queen's Park and 1.12 for Greenock Morton — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Queen's Park vs Greenock Morton?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Queen's Park or draw is 69%.