Queen's Park vs Stenhousemuir Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Queen's Park vs Stenhousemuir
Model pick: Queen's Park (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.23 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Queen's Park | Stenhousemuir |
|---|
| League position | #9 (0 pts) | #3 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
*Queen's Park shown at home, Stenhousemuir shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Queen's Park — last 5
WLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Stenhousemuir — last 5
WWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Queen's Park (home) | Stenhousemuir (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 67% |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.23 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Queen's Park or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Stenhousemuir or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Queen's Park clean sheet | 32% |
| Stenhousemuir clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Queen's Park is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Queen's Park are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Queen's Park vs Stenhousemuir — FAQ
Who will win Queen's Park vs Stenhousemuir?
Our statistical model makes Queen's Park the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Queen's Park 40%, draw 29%, Stenhousemuir 31%.
Will both teams score in Queen's Park vs Stenhousemuir?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Queen's Park vs Stenhousemuir?
Expected goals are 1.23 for Queen's Park and 1.15 for Stenhousemuir — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Queen's Park vs Stenhousemuir?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Queen's Park or draw is 66%.