Queens Park Rangers vs Middlesbrough Prediction & Preview
Championship (England) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHAMPIONSHIP (ENGLAND)
Queens Park Rangers vs Middlesbrough
Model pick: Middlesbrough (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.19 – 1.5
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Queens Park Rangers | Middlesbrough |
|---|
| League position | #4 (7 pts) | #5 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
*Queens Park Rangers shown at home, Middlesbrough shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Queens Park Rangers — last 5
WLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Middlesbrough — last 5
WWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Queens Park Rangers (home) | Middlesbrough (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% |
Championship (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Championship (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.19 vs 1.5):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Queens Park Rangers or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Middlesbrough or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Queens Park Rangers clean sheet | 22% |
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Middlesbrough is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Middlesbrough edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Queens Park Rangers vs Middlesbrough — FAQ
Who will win Queens Park Rangers vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model makes Middlesbrough the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Queens Park Rangers 29%, draw 28%, Middlesbrough 44%.
Will both teams score in Queens Park Rangers vs Middlesbrough?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Queens Park Rangers vs Middlesbrough?
Expected goals are 1.19 for Queens Park Rangers and 1.5 for Middlesbrough — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Queens Park Rangers vs Middlesbrough?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Queens Park Rangers or draw is 56%.