Querétaro vs Toluca Prediction & Preview
Liga MX (Mexico) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA MX (MEXICO)
Querétaro vs Toluca
Model pick: Toluca (51%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.06 – 1.73
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Querétaro | Toluca |
|---|
| League position | #7 (7 pts) | #4 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 0.6 |
*Querétaro shown at home, Toluca shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Querétaro — last 5
WWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Toluca — last 5
WWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Querétaro (home) | Toluca (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 1.5 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 50% |
| Top scorer | Ali Avila (11) | Paulinho (8) |
Liga MX (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Liga MX (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.06 vs 1.73):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Querétaro or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — Toluca or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Querétaro clean sheet | 18% |
| Toluca clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Toluca is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Despite playing away, Toluca edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Querétaro vs Toluca — FAQ
Who will win Querétaro vs Toluca?
Our statistical model makes Toluca the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Querétaro 25%, draw 25%, Toluca 51%.
Will both teams score in Querétaro vs Toluca?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Querétaro vs Toluca?
Expected goals are 1.06 for Querétaro and 1.73 for Toluca — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Querétaro vs Toluca?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Querétaro or draw is 47%.