Quilmes vs Almagro Prediction & Preview
Argentino B (Argentina) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO B (ARGENTINA)
Quilmes vs Almagro
Model pick: Almagro (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 2.4
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Quilmes | Almagro |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.8 | 1.67 / 0.67 |
*Quilmes shown at home, Almagro shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Quilmes — last 5
LWLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 70% of home games go over 2.5.
Almagro — last 5
WWD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Quilmes (home) | Almagro (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 100% |
Argentino B (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.11
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 31%
Away wins: 20%
Over 2.5: 36%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Argentino B (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 2.4):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — Quilmes or draw (1X) | 34% |
| Double chance — Almagro or draw (X2) | 84% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| Quilmes clean sheet | 9% |
| Almagro clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Almagro is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Despite playing away, Almagro edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Quilmes vs Almagro — FAQ
Who will win Quilmes vs Almagro?
Our statistical model makes Almagro the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Quilmes 18%, draw 20%, Almagro 61%.
Will both teams score in Quilmes vs Almagro?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Quilmes vs Almagro?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Quilmes and 2.4 for Almagro — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Quilmes vs Almagro?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (10%). Double chance for Quilmes or draw is 34%.