Quilmes vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction & Preview
Argentino B (Argentina) · Aug 05, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO B (ARGENTINA)
Quilmes vs Gimnasia Jujuy
Model pick: Quilmes (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.44 – 1.2
Total goals: 4.6
Over 2.5: 72%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Quilmes | Gimnasia Jujuy |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.8 | 1.33 / 1.33 |
*Quilmes shown at home, Gimnasia Jujuy shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Quilmes — last 5
LWLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 70% of home games go over 2.5.
Gimnasia Jujuy — last 5
DWL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Quilmes (home) | Gimnasia Jujuy (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 100% |
Argentino B (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.11
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 31%
Away wins: 20%
Over 2.5: 36%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Argentino B (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.44 vs 1.2):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-1 (8%) |
| Double chance — Quilmes or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — Gimnasia Jujuy or draw (X2) | 21% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 95% / 5% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Quilmes clean sheet | 30% |
| Gimnasia Jujuy clean sheet | 3% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Quilmes is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Quilmes are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.6, this shapes as an open game (72% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Quilmes vs Gimnasia Jujuy — FAQ
Who will win Quilmes vs Gimnasia Jujuy?
Our statistical model makes Quilmes the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Quilmes 56%, draw 24%, Gimnasia Jujuy 20%.
Will both teams score in Quilmes vs Gimnasia Jujuy?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Quilmes vs Gimnasia Jujuy?
Expected goals are 3.44 for Quilmes and 1.2 for Gimnasia Jujuy — about 4.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Quilmes vs Gimnasia Jujuy?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-1 (8%). Double chance for Quilmes or draw is 91%.