Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo
Model pick: Draw (35%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.79 – 0.85
Total goals: 1.6
Over 2.5: 34%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Quintanar del Rey | Toledo |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.4 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Quintanar del Rey shown at home, Toledo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Quintanar del Rey — last 5
WDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 53% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Toledo — last 5
WLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 39% of the time; 30% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Quintanar del Rey (home) | Toledo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 53% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 37% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.79 vs 0.85):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Quintanar del Rey or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Toledo or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 65% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 49% / 51% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 8% / 92% |
| Quintanar del Rey clean sheet | 43% |
| Toledo clean sheet | 45% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
35%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (66% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo — FAQ
Who will win Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 35%. Full probabilities: Quintanar del Rey 31%, draw 35%, Toledo 34%.
Will both teams score in Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo?
Expected goals are 0.79 for Quintanar del Rey and 0.85 for Toledo — about 1.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (19%). Double chance for Quintanar del Rey or draw is 66%.