Radnički Kragujevac vs IMT Novi Beograd Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
Radnički Kragujevac vs IMT Novi Beograd
Model pick: Radnički Kragujevac (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.43 – 1.13
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Radnički Kragujevac | IMT Novi Beograd |
|---|
| League position | #6 (6 pts) | #2 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 67% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
*Radnički Kragujevac shown at home, IMT Novi Beograd shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Radnički Kragujevac — last 5
WWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
IMT Novi Beograd — last 5
WWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Radnički Kragujevac (home) | IMT Novi Beograd (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 2-0-1 in 3 (1.0 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 45% |
| Top scorer | Ester Sokler (10) | Charly Keita (4) |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.43 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Radnički Kragujevac or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — IMT Novi Beograd or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Radnički Kragujevac clean sheet | 32% |
| IMT Novi Beograd clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Radnički Kragujevac is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Radnički Kragujevac are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Radnički Kragujevac vs IMT Novi Beograd — FAQ
Who will win Radnički Kragujevac vs IMT Novi Beograd?
Our statistical model makes Radnički Kragujevac the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Radnički Kragujevac 42%, draw 27%, IMT Novi Beograd 30%.
Will both teams score in Radnički Kragujevac vs IMT Novi Beograd?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Radnički Kragujevac vs IMT Novi Beograd?
Expected goals are 1.43 for Radnički Kragujevac and 1.13 for IMT Novi Beograd — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Radnički Kragujevac vs IMT Novi Beograd?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Radnički Kragujevac or draw is 70%.