Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda
Model pick: Crvena Zvezda (70%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.74 – 2.43
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Radnik Surdulica | Crvena Zvezda |
|---|
| League position | #9 (1 pts) | #15 (14 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.2 | 3.0 / 1.2 |
*Radnik Surdulica shown at home, Crvena Zvezda shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Radnik Surdulica — last 5
DLWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Crvena Zvezda — last 5
DLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 44% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Radnik Surdulica (home) | Crvena Zvezda (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 2-0-2 in 4 (0.8 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 67% |
| Top scorer | Luka Zoric (3) | – |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.74 vs 2.43):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (12%) |
| Double chance — Radnik Surdulica or draw (1X) | 25% |
| Double chance — Crvena Zvezda or draw (X2) | 91% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Radnik Surdulica clean sheet | 9% |
| Crvena Zvezda clean sheet | 48% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Crvena Zvezda is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Despite playing away, Crvena Zvezda edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda — FAQ
Who will win Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda?
Our statistical model makes Crvena Zvezda the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Radnik Surdulica 12%, draw 19%, Crvena Zvezda 70%.
Will both teams score in Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda?
Expected goals are 0.74 for Radnik Surdulica and 2.43 for Crvena Zvezda — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (12%). Double chance for Radnik Surdulica or draw is 25%.