Radnik Surdulica vs Mačva Šabac Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
Radnik Surdulica vs Mačva Šabac
Model pick: Radnik Surdulica (58%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.49 – 0.5
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Radnik Surdulica | Mačva Šabac |
|---|
| League position | #13 (2 pts) | #12 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 3.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.6 | 0.6 / 2.4 |
*Radnik Surdulica shown at home, Mačva Šabac shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Radnik Surdulica — last 5
LWDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Mačva Šabac — last 5
LLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Radnik Surdulica (home) | Mačva Šabac (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.0 / 3.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Luka Zoric (3) | – |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.49 vs 0.5):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (20%) |
| Double chance — Radnik Surdulica or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — Mačva Šabac or draw (X2) | 38% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Radnik Surdulica clean sheet | 61% |
| Mačva Šabac clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Radnik Surdulica is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Radnik Surdulica are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Radnik Surdulica vs Mačva Šabac — FAQ
Who will win Radnik Surdulica vs Mačva Šabac?
Our statistical model makes Radnik Surdulica the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Radnik Surdulica 58%, draw 28%, Mačva Šabac 14%.
Will both teams score in Radnik Surdulica vs Mačva Šabac?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Radnik Surdulica vs Mačva Šabac?
Expected goals are 1.49 for Radnik Surdulica and 0.5 for Mačva Šabac — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Radnik Surdulica vs Mačva Šabac?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (20%). Double chance for Radnik Surdulica or draw is 88%.