Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar
Model pick: Radnik Surdulica (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.22 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Radnik Surdulica | Novi Pazar |
|---|
| League position | #8 (5 pts) | #12 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 1.4 |
*Radnik Surdulica shown at home, Novi Pazar shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Radnik Surdulica — last 5
WDDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Novi Pazar — last 5
LWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Radnik Surdulica (home) | Novi Pazar (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Luka Zoric (3) | Dominic Sadi (4) |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.22 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Radnik Surdulica or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Novi Pazar or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Radnik Surdulica clean sheet | 32% |
| Novi Pazar clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Radnik Surdulica is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Radnik Surdulica are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar — FAQ
Who will win Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar?
Our statistical model makes Radnik Surdulica the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Radnik Surdulica 37%, draw 29%, Novi Pazar 34%.
Will both teams score in Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar?
Expected goals are 1.22 for Radnik Surdulica and 1.15 for Novi Pazar — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Radnik Surdulica or draw is 66%.