Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Zabrze Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 12:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Zabrze
Model pick: Górnik Zabrze (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.37 – 1.32
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Radomiak Radom | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|
| League position | #11 (3 pts) | #6 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.0 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*Radomiak Radom shown at home, Górnik Zabrze shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Radomiak Radom — last 5
WLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Górnik Zabrze — last 5
WLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Radomiak Radom (home) | Górnik Zabrze (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Top scorer | Abdoul Tapsoba (6) | Maksym Khlan (4) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.37 vs 1.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Radomiak Radom or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Górnik Zabrze or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Radomiak Radom clean sheet | 27% |
| Górnik Zabrze clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Górnik Zabrze is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Górnik Zabrze edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Zabrze — FAQ
Who will win Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Zabrze?
Our statistical model makes Górnik Zabrze the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Radomiak Radom 34%, draw 27%, Górnik Zabrze 39%.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Zabrze?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Zabrze?
Expected goals are 1.37 for Radomiak Radom and 1.32 for Górnik Zabrze — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Zabrze?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Radomiak Radom or draw is 64%.