Raith Rovers vs Ayr United Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Raith Rovers vs Ayr United
Model pick: Raith Rovers (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Raith Rovers | Ayr United |
|---|
| League position | #4 (4 pts) | #2 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 |
*Raith Rovers shown at home, Ayr United shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Raith Rovers — last 5
LWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Ayr United — last 5
WWWDL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Raith Rovers (home) | Ayr United (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.49 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Raith Rovers or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Ayr United or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Raith Rovers clean sheet | 32% |
| Ayr United clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Raith Rovers is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Raith Rovers are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Raith Rovers vs Ayr United — FAQ
Who will win Raith Rovers vs Ayr United?
Our statistical model makes Raith Rovers the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Raith Rovers 46%, draw 27%, Ayr United 26%.
Will both teams score in Raith Rovers vs Ayr United?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Raith Rovers vs Ayr United?
Expected goals are 1.49 for Raith Rovers and 1.15 for Ayr United — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Raith Rovers vs Ayr United?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Raith Rovers or draw is 71%.