Raków Częstochowa vs Górnik Zabrze Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Raków Częstochowa vs Górnik Zabrze
Model pick: Raków Częstochowa (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.55 – 0.9
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Raków Częstochowa | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|
| League position | #2 (14 pts) | #2 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 0.3 | 3.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
*Raków Częstochowa shown at home, Górnik Zabrze shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa — last 5
WLDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Górnik Zabrze — last 5
DLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Raków Częstochowa (home) | Górnik Zabrze (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-0 in 3 (2.3 / 0.3 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% |
| Top scorer | Jonatan Brunes (15) | Maksym Khlan (4) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.55 vs 0.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Raków Częstochowa or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Górnik Zabrze or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Raków Częstochowa clean sheet | 41% |
| Górnik Zabrze clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Raków Częstochowa is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Raków Częstochowa are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Górnik Zabrze — FAQ
Who will win Raków Częstochowa vs Górnik Zabrze?
Our statistical model makes Raków Częstochowa the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 50%, draw 27%, Górnik Zabrze 24%.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Górnik Zabrze?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Raków Częstochowa vs Górnik Zabrze?
Expected goals are 1.55 for Raków Częstochowa and 0.9 for Górnik Zabrze — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Raków Częstochowa vs Górnik Zabrze?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Raków Częstochowa or draw is 78%.