Raków Częstochowa vs Hajduk Split Prediction & Preview
Europa Conference League (Europe) · Aug 27, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Raków Częstochowa vs Hajduk Split
Model pick: Raków Częstochowa (51%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.8 – 1.43
Total goals: 4.2
Over 2.5: 69%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Raków Częstochowa | Hajduk Split |
|---|
| League position | #2 (14 pts) | #6 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 0.3 | 1.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 3.0 / 1.4 |
*Raków Częstochowa shown at home, Hajduk Split shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa — last 5
LDWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Hajduk Split — last 5
WDWWD
On the road: clean sheet 36% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Raków Częstochowa (home) | Hajduk Split (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-0 in 3 (2.3 / 0.3 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Jonatan Brunes (15) | Marko Livaja (8) |
Europa Conference League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Europa Conference League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.8 vs 1.43):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (8%) |
| Double chance — Raków Częstochowa or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Hajduk Split or draw (X2) | 34% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 92% / 8% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Raków Częstochowa clean sheet | 24% |
| Hajduk Split clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Raków Częstochowa is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Raków Częstochowa are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.2, this shapes as an open game (69% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Hajduk Split — FAQ
Who will win Raków Częstochowa vs Hajduk Split?
Our statistical model makes Raków Częstochowa the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 51%, draw 24%, Hajduk Split 25%.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Hajduk Split?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Raków Częstochowa vs Hajduk Split?
Expected goals are 2.8 for Raków Częstochowa and 1.43 for Hajduk Split — about 4.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Raków Częstochowa vs Hajduk Split?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (8%). Double chance for Raków Częstochowa or draw is 83%.