Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Białystok Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Białystok
Model pick: Raków Częstochowa (49%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.66 – 1.06
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Raków Częstochowa | Jagiellonia Białystok |
|---|
| League position | #2 (14 pts) | #17 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Raków Częstochowa shown at home, Jagiellonia Białystok shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa — last 5
LDWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Jagiellonia Białystok — last 5
WWLDW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Raków Częstochowa (home) | Jagiellonia Białystok (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-0 in 3 (2.3 / 0.3 goals per game) | 0-3-0 in 3 (0.7 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Jonatan Brunes (15) | Jesus Imaz (5) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.66 vs 1.06):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Raków Częstochowa or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Jagiellonia Białystok or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Raków Częstochowa clean sheet | 35% |
| Jagiellonia Białystok clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Raków Częstochowa is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Raków Częstochowa are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Białystok — FAQ
Who will win Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
Our statistical model makes Raków Częstochowa the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 49%, draw 26%, Jagiellonia Białystok 26%.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
Expected goals are 1.66 for Raków Częstochowa and 1.06 for Jagiellonia Białystok — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Raków Częstochowa or draw is 76%.