Raków Częstochowa vs Wisła Płock Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 12:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Raków Częstochowa vs Wisła Płock
Model pick: Raków Częstochowa (57%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.65 – 0.68
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Raków Częstochowa | Wisła Płock |
|---|
| League position | #2 (14 pts) | #10 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 0.3 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.2 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Raków Częstochowa shown at home, Wisła Płock shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa — last 5
LLLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Wisła Płock — last 5
LDDWW
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Raków Częstochowa (home) | Wisła Płock (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-0 in 3 (2.3 / 0.3 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 58% |
| Top scorer | Jonatan Brunes (15) | Lukasz Sekulski (8) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.65 vs 0.68):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Raków Częstochowa or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Wisła Płock or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Raków Częstochowa clean sheet | 51% |
| Wisła Płock clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Raków Częstochowa is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Raków Częstochowa are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Wisła Płock — FAQ
Who will win Raków Częstochowa vs Wisła Płock?
Our statistical model makes Raków Częstochowa the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 57%, draw 26%, Wisła Płock 17%.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Wisła Płock?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Raków Częstochowa vs Wisła Płock?
Expected goals are 1.65 for Raków Częstochowa and 0.68 for Wisła Płock — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Raków Częstochowa vs Wisła Płock?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Raków Częstochowa or draw is 85%.