Raków Częstochowa vs Zagłębie Lubin Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 12:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Raków Częstochowa vs Zagłębie Lubin
Model pick: Raków Częstochowa (56%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.69 – 0.78
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Raków Częstochowa | Zagłębie Lubin |
|---|
| League position | #2 (14 pts) | #10 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 0.3 | 1.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Raków Częstochowa shown at home, Zagłębie Lubin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa — last 5
DWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Zagłębie Lubin — last 5
LLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Raków Częstochowa (home) | Zagłębie Lubin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-0 in 3 (2.3 / 0.3 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% |
| Top scorer | Jonatan Brunes (15) | – |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.69 vs 0.78):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Raków Częstochowa or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Zagłębie Lubin or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Raków Częstochowa clean sheet | 46% |
| Zagłębie Lubin clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Raków Częstochowa is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Raków Częstochowa are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Zagłębie Lubin — FAQ
Who will win Raków Częstochowa vs Zagłębie Lubin?
Our statistical model makes Raków Częstochowa the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 56%, draw 25%, Zagłębie Lubin 19%.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Zagłębie Lubin?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Raków Częstochowa vs Zagłębie Lubin?
Expected goals are 1.69 for Raków Częstochowa and 0.78 for Zagłębie Lubin — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Raków Częstochowa vs Zagłębie Lubin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Raków Częstochowa or draw is 83%.