Randers vs AGF Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Denmark) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (DENMARK)
Randers vs AGF
Model pick: AGF (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.09 – 1.5
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Randers | AGF |
|---|
| League position | #9 (4 pts) | #10 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 2.4 |
*Randers shown at home, AGF shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Randers — last 5
LWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
AGF — last 5
WLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Randers (home) | AGF (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-1 in 3 (1.0 / 1.7 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (1.5 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 49% |
| Top scorer | Elies Mahmoud (5) | Tobias Bech (12) |
Super Liga (Denmark) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.84
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super Liga (Denmark) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.09 vs 1.5):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Randers or draw (1X) | 53% |
| Double chance — AGF or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Randers clean sheet | 22% |
| AGF clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
AGF is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, AGF edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Randers vs AGF — FAQ
Who will win Randers vs AGF?
Our statistical model makes AGF the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Randers 29%, draw 26%, AGF 44%.
Will both teams score in Randers vs AGF?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Randers vs AGF?
Expected goals are 1.09 for Randers and 1.5 for AGF — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Randers vs AGF?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Randers or draw is 53%.