Rapid Wien vs Grazer AK Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Austria) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (AUSTRIA)
Rapid Wien vs Grazer AK
Model pick: Rapid Wien (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.64 – 0.98
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rapid Wien | Grazer AK |
|---|
| League position | #2 (6 pts) | #7 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.2 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
*Rapid Wien shown at home, Grazer AK shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rapid Wien — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Grazer AK — last 5
WLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rapid Wien (home) | Grazer AK (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 60% |
Bundesliga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.87
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Bundesliga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.64 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Rapid Wien or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Grazer AK or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Rapid Wien clean sheet | 38% |
| Grazer AK clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rapid Wien is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Rapid Wien are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Rapid Wien vs Grazer AK — FAQ
Who will win Rapid Wien vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model makes Rapid Wien the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Rapid Wien 52%, draw 26%, Grazer AK 22%.
Will both teams score in Rapid Wien vs Grazer AK?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Rapid Wien vs Grazer AK?
Expected goals are 1.64 for Rapid Wien and 0.98 for Grazer AK — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rapid Wien vs Grazer AK?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for Rapid Wien or draw is 77%.